未来手机游戏发展趋势编辑本段回目录
作者：Kris Graft
从Gree的发展中我们可以看出电子游戏产业的快速转变趋势。
2004年末（那时候PlayStation 2仍然拥有极大的市场份额，并且诺基亚N-Gage QD才刚重新定义手机游戏）这家总部位于东京的公司刚刚成立时，它还只是其现任首席执行官的一个社交网络分支项目。
如今，Gree已经在世界各地吸引了上百万的用户，并且技术也一直是其强大的优势，而他们的目标则是在智能手机和平板电脑领域占据一块不可分割的巨大份额。
Gree在美国总部的两大关键人物，高级副总裁Ken Ch和Anil Dharniiu（游戏邦注：于今年将自己的公司Funzio卖给了Gree）将在此分享他们对于未来手机游戏市场的看法。
Ken Chiu and Anil Dharni(from bizjournals and gamesauce)
更多类型
如今，策略游戏，城镇建造游戏和博彩游戏（以及《愤怒的小鸟》）仍然主导着手机游戏的畅销排行榜单。Dharni表示，随着手机游戏市场的不断成熟，我们将能够看到更多不同类型游戏的出现。
他说道：“四，五个月前纸牌游戏甚至还未真正出现，但是现在它却风靡于iOS和Android平台上。在中核到硬核的过度空间里我们甚至看到了更多不同的类别，如即时策略游戏和纸牌游戏。如此看来，我们将能在之后的手机游戏领域看到更加细分的游戏类型——基于用户粘性和盈利而发展并有可能主导畅销排行榜单。”
Chiu说道：“我认为现在的玩家正逐渐偏离休闲游戏并慢慢倾向于中核和硬核游戏。所以那些专注于开发这类型游戏的公司将迎来更大的成功。”
更加社交化
关于社交游戏的批评中最常见的便是不够社交化。Chiu认为必须改变这种情况。
他说道：“我们将会看到更多真正具有社交性的游戏。就像《SongPop》等游戏在这点上便表现得非常出色。我同样也期待看到更多具有社交互动的游戏的出现。游戏不再只是强调一对一机制，而是开始更加侧重团队游戏。”
Dharni补充道：“社交游戏和多人游戏将开始在手机游戏领域扮演着更加重要的角色，特别是当Facebook也不断向手机领域靠近时。我们发现许多开发者都开始使用iOS平台上的Game Center（也包括我们自己），所以我认为社交性将在今后的手机游戏开发中发挥着更加重要的作用。”
与其它开发商一样，Gree也希望能够将所有手机玩家整合在一起，不管他们是面向iOS，Android（该公司也已经进入了Windows Phone）。
Dharni说道：“许多中核和硬核游戏都包含了这种理念。我们也发现越来越多开发者将社交功能带进游戏玩法中，即创造出更多PVP或合作探索机制。”
创造出真正具有社交性的游戏也必须能够带来更多利益。Dharni说道：“像《SongPop》以及Backflip的《扔纸团》等游戏都证明了一种理念，即只要你的游戏更具社交化，它便能够吸引更多玩家的注意，并突显于众多应用中。而如果你的游戏不能让玩家与好友相互交流，他们便不会觉得游戏有趣。”
更高的制作价值
因为手机游戏市场的准入障碍较低，所以产品的制作价值波动率也较大。但是对于Gree和其它大型发行商和开发商来说，制作价值将会日渐趋于高端化。
Chiu说道：“将过去几年大受欢迎的游戏与今天受欢迎的游戏相比较，我们会发现游戏获得了巨大的完善。如今的游戏具有更高的制作价值，更加精致的游戏玩法以及更加华丽的图像设计。我也认为在今后几年里游戏将会更好地向前发展。”
受硬件驱动的体验
手机硬件的快速发展将继续影响着开发者所制作的游戏以及玩家的游戏体验。
Dharni解释道：“硬件的不断创新以及最近出现的LTE都是游戏产业的巨大变革者。特别是LTE，我们甚至还未完全挖掘出其巨大的潜力。如今的Android用户已经能够体验这一功能，而iPhone 5的发行也为iOS平台迎来了LTE，从而让玩家可以基于快速的网络连接而获得游戏体验的最大完善。”
Chiu说道：“如今我们能够创造出具有更丰富图像的游戏，提供更加快速的游戏性能和网络连接——这是作为开发者的我们以及用户真正关心的内容。”
更灵活的分析
这并不是社交游戏设计中最重要的一部分，但是分析却能够帮助开发者更好地回应玩家的活动从而创造出更棒的游戏体验。Chiu预测道：“分析将会变得更加灵活。如今出现了更多工具能够帮助我们获得更多更有效的分析数据。而在五年前，开发者仍需要亲自进行数据库查询而获得相关游戏数据。但是现在我们可以轻松地获得所需要的信息，并快速分析玩家的反馈，从而有针对性地进行修改与更新。我想在今后几年时间里这种分析仍会得到进一步完善。”
Dharni表示，Gree绝不会在未进行任何分析前发行一款游戏或推出测试版。但是随着分析在手机社交游戏中所扮演的角色日益重要，我们在获取数据时将面临更大的障碍。
Dharni说道：“我们所面临的一大挑战便是在追踪玩家时需要保存的数据量。我们保存了大量的数据，并且这些数据量也一直迅速提高着。所以我们希望在继续储存更多数据并创造更多游戏时能够依靠软件和硬件对这些数据进行维护。”
“第二个问题便是我们如何做才能快速获得这些数据。尽管在Gree我们拥有最先进的解决方法，但是这些方法仍然有待更好的完善，因为虽然我们能够花一天时间获得数据，但是我们也希望只要花一个小时，甚至是5分钟便能获得数据。就像我们便遇到过许多情况需要更加快速地获得数据。”
更大的曝光率
随着游戏开发民主化的提升，曝光率问题也变得越发严峻。如今游戏开发与大规模推广障碍的降低，使得开发者更加难以在众多应用中突显自己的游戏了。
Dharni认为影响应用曝光率主要有三大元素，它将其称为3“S”，即社交化，搜索和智能应用商店。
随着Facebook与Twitter的日益普及，他认为通过社交网站去推广自己的游戏变得越来越有效。“玩家的好友已经成为了影响他们手机游戏下载选择的最大元素之一。实际上许多社交网站已经拥有非常出色的手机产品和出色的用户获取方法，从而引导着用户去尝试好友所进行游戏，进而吸引更多用户的注意。”
完善手机商店的搜索引擎也非常重要。Dharni表示Gree发现了一个趋势，即虽然玩家会使用应用商店的搜索引擎，但是这些引擎却不能帮助他们有效地找到游戏。
在提到苹果收购了搜索和发现平台Chomp时他说道：“我相信谷歌和苹果都知道完善自己商店的搜索引擎功能的必要性。”
除此之外还需要确保手机商店能够更加灵活地分析各种数据。而Gree自身的平台则能够弥补参数上的缺口。“现在的应用商店只能提供少量有关游戏的信息，如下载量和排名。但却不能有效地测量用户粘性和DAU等数据。例如游戏是拥有1000万名用户还是10名用户？”
“所以我们期待今后能够看到更加完善的分类，包括像用户粘性等数据，或者应用商店需要投入更多时间去提高用户数据的整合能力，为玩家推荐更多好游戏，就像Netflix（游戏邦注：全球十大视频网站中唯一的收费站点）那样。苹果拥有Genius，虽然还不够成熟，但是我们却能够看到其中的巨大潜力。”
（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译）
The future of mobile games, according to Gree
By Kris Graft
Gree is one of those companies that epitomizes the video game industry’s propensity for rapid change.
Founded in late 2004 — back when PlayStation 2 was owning “gamer” mindshare and Nokia’s N-Gage QD was making another go at defining mobile games — Tokyo-based Gree was just a social network side-project of current CEO.
Now with millions of users and several locations around the world, technology has caught up with Gree’s vision, and the company is poised to shape how big businesses navigate within the smartphone and tablet realm.
Two key players at Gree’s U.S. headquarters, SVPs Ken Chiu and Anil Dharni, who sold their mobile game company Funzio to Gree this year, opened up on what they see as the future of the mobile game market.
More Genres
Right now, strategy games, town-building games and casino games (oh, and Angry Birds) are dominating top-grossing charts on mobile storefronts. As the mobile game market matures, however, we’ll be seeing more variety, says Dharni.
“The card genre didn’t really exist four or five months back and now it is hugely successful on both iOS and Android,” he says. “…We are seeing more categories — like RTS and card — breaking out in the mid-core-to-hardcore space. Looking ahead, we will see more niche genres launching in the mobile space, growing in terms of user engagement, monetization and potentially dominating the grossing ranks.”
Says Chiu, “I think people are moving away from the casual games and looking more mid-core and hardcore. Companies that focus on those types of games are seeing significantly more success in the market these days.”
More social
A common criticism with games that are dubbed “social” is that there isn’t much “social” about them at all. Chiu says that’s bound to change.
“We are going to see a lot more truly social games. Games like SongPop are doing really well in that space,” he says. “I also anticipate seeing games that have more group interactions entering the market. Games will be less one-on-one focused and we will start seeing more of group play.”
Dharni adds, “Social and multiplayer games will start playing a bigger role in mobile gaming, especially as we see Facebook looking to flex its distribution power [in the mobile space]. We are seeing a lot of developers starting to use Game Center on iOS — including us, we are deeply integrating with Game Center — so I think social will start playing a lot more of an integral role in mobile gaming development.”
Like other developers, Gree is focusing on bringing mobile players together, whether they’re on iOS or Android (the company has yet to make the leap to Windows Phone).
“A lot of mid-core and hardcore games include this concept of guilds. We see a growing focus among developers to enable that mechanic via social features leading to a lot more guild vs. guild (PVP) or cooperative questing,” says Dharni.
And making games truly social, of course, makes good business sense. “Other games like SongPop, and Backflip’s Paper Toss Friends illustrate the idea that the more social you make your games the higher the probability that you will attract a larger audience and solve app discovery,” Dharni says. “Those games just aren’t as fun if you don’t have your friends to play them with.”
Higher Production Values
Because of the low-barrier nature of mobile game marketplaces, production value will always vary greatly. But for Gree and other major publishers and developers, production value will continue to skew towards the high end.
“If you look at the past couple of years — and what games were popular — and compare it with the popular games today, there is a vast improvement,” says Chiu. “We see games with higher production values, more advanced gameplay, and better art. I think that will continue over the next couple of years.”
Hardware drives the experience
Anyone who reads Gamasutra knows this, but it bears repeating: The rapid advancements in mobile hardware will continue to meaningfully impact the kinds of games developers make, and the way players experience them.
“Constant innovation in hardware and now LTE are game-changers. Specific to LTE, we didn’t realize what a big deal it was,” according to Dharni. “Android users have had access to it for a while and now thanks to the iPhone 5, LTE on iOS is a reality and you can immediately see how a fast network enhances the gaming experience.”
Says Chiu, “We are now able to make more graphically rich games, offer faster performance, faster network speeds — it is just making things more interesting for us as developers and ultimately for the user.”
Better, smarter analytics
It’s not the most romantic part about social game design, but the reality is that analytics allow developers to respond to player activity in order to create a better experience. “Analytics will definitely get smarter and smarter,” Chiu forecasts. “We see more tools made to make analyzing data much more efficient. If you look at the industry five years ago, developers literally had to run database queries themselves to look at game data. But now we can pinpoint the information we need and pull it up quickly enough for us to take that feedback into account and fix or update the games accordingly. Over the next couple of years I have no doubt that will continue to improve.”
Dharni says Gree never launches a game or even sends it into beta without proper analytics. But as analytics become a larger part of mobile social games, there are hurdles when maintaining that data.
“A challenge we run into is the amount of data we need to store in order to track players,” says Dharni. “We are storing massive amounts of data and that’s just increasing rapidly. We need software and hardware that can continue to scale as we keep storing more data and making more games.
“The second issue is how quickly can we query that data. So, even though we have state-of-the-art solutions at Gree, they need to keep improving because it’s one thing to turn around data in a day, it’s another to get in an hour, and another to get it in under five minutes. There are different use cases where we actually need data pretty rapidly.”
Better discovery
Along with the dream of the democratization of game development comes the nightmare of solving the discovery problem. With the barriers for game development and large-scale distribution lower than ever, it’s an extremely difficult task to get players to know your game even exists.
Dharni believes there are three elements to successful app discovery, which he calls the three “S”s: social, search and smart app stores.
With the prevalence of Facebook and Twitter, he says discovery through social networks is more viable than ever. “Ultimately people’s friends have become one of the biggest influences on mobile download choices. The fact that those [social] networks now have better mobile products with better user-targeting means makes them an even more valuable tool in acquiring users and directing users to what games their friends are playing.”
Improving the search function for mobile storefronts is another factor. Dharni says Gree sees a general trend showing that people do use app store search functions, but it’s not a very efficient way to find games.
“I do believe that Google and Apple both understand the need to improve and update the search function of their stores,” says Dharni, who adds that Apple’s acquisition this year of search and discovery platform Chomp is a good sign.
And making mobile storefronts smarter about analytics is also a necessity, Dharni believes. Gree’s own platform aims to fill in the metrics gaps. “Right now, app stores take in limited amounts of information about their games — things like download rate and rating information. What they are not effectively measuring or using are things like game engagement and DAU. For example, does a game have 10 million users or 10 users?
“So moving forward we see a lot of potential to improve categories, potentially adding things in like engagement, or app stores that spend more time perfecting and improving how they tap into user data, creating recommendations, similar to how Netflix does it. Apple does have Genius, but I think that is still in early stages, and we see the potential for that to really be taken to the next level.” (source:gamasutra)
